For WWE, now couldn’t be better timing for a dose of the old conventional wisdom—and perhaps a reality check. With a few possible exceptions, the last 18 months of WWE PPV have been extremely disappointing, and rather being examples of how the WWE restored itself while losing an audience, each show was indicative of a nettlesome, long-ignored problem.
The first problem was the extension of the PPV schedule: in 2004, the company ran 14 shows; a slight increase over 2003’s 12, but that overwhelmed the year’s booking effort, and in October was cause for the two worst buyrates in the company’s history. Instead of recognizing this as a disastrous attempt at broadening the company in terms of quantity rather than quality as I and others had warned, the business end has taken this as a message of validation. The addition of the show financially saved the company some months, and helped lead to what was a successful business year, if artificially so.
But quality PPV shows, once WWE’s trademark even during booking slumps, is now a rarity. Summerslam was a mediocre show that was promoted badly, and did a disappointing 415,000 buys, and was live, a show reacted to so badly that it jittered half of the crew noticeably, but accurately reflected a card that consisted of a rushed Chris Benoit/Randy Orton feud for the title, John Bradshaw Layfield vs. The Undertaker for the Smackdown title, and Triple H vs. the flavor of the month at the time Eugene.
The next three PPVs—Unforgiven, No Mercy, and Taboo Tuesday—were buyrate failures, and buyrates have grown increasingly dependant on how well a card is promoted and angles that support the feuds are shot on TV (more on that with regard to WrestleMania in a bit). Unforgiven, at 239,000 buys, was the result of what was probably the worst managed feud last year, between Triple H and Randy Orton and marked the end of a one-month Orton title reign. Orton/HHH also had to share the spotlight of poor feuds with Shawn Michaels vs. Kane, a match supposedly precipitated by a well executed angle where Michaels was practically decapitated by Kane and left WWE TV, but the booking never let us know exactly what the feud was about. No Mercy, at 183,000, had nothing at all to offer, and the main event was a rematch of the poorly received JBL vs. Undertaker match from Summerslam. Taboo Tuesday was the concept of letting voters decide what the main event was, which works well on “American Idol” but selling at $39.95 per-view, it was only worth watching by 174,000 fans, who could have just as easily watched what was a more entertaining MLB baseball playoff.
One of the more galling realizations to come from this study is that WWE will be doing another 14 shows this year, one of which will be the Tuesday night Taboo Tuesday concept, despite it being so resoundingly reproached.
The Survivor Series buyrate, due to good promotion of an elimination match for control of RAW for a month, was good (325,000), but the show itself, was below average. In the beg inning of what has become a significant problem, the show went off the air failing to develop any angles for the upcoming WrestleMania show, a preparation in advance that has hardly ever in recent years been overlooked and gone into what has made WrestleMania so successful: the fact that it is the only advance-booked show of the year. This year’s show is going to be extremely unpredictable, but past shows have quite clearly demonstrated that a predictable card, for the purposes of both the writer and the viewer, make for a more successful show. Armageddon, a horrible show, drew another bad buyrate, with 230,000 buys. New Year’s Resolution, even worse, was well promoted and drew 275,000 buys. Clearly, an effective formula would be to promote a show well, in doing so maximizing the impact of talent, present a card that people will want to pay for, and present a card that will make for a good PPV.
At this point, the largest problem is not the credibility issues that have resulted from not being trusted to put on a quality, but rather the fact that the company is unwilling to learn from these past lessons. If they seem basic, they probably are, but WWE went into to No Way Out with only a few matches announced before the last Smackdown before the show, and then threw together a pitiful card, with an uninteresting main event of Layfield vs. The Big Show in a so-called barbed-wire steel cage match. A buyrate for that show is yet to come in.
Nonetheless, and a worse omen, WWE remains similarly unprepared for this year’s WrestleMania from the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Other than a Batista/Triple H match that the fans really advocated for after Batista was pushed strongly and has been booked pretty well, and a John Cena vs. Layfield match that is expected to put Cena over as champion. With those matches, it’s clear that the undercard is going to have to deliver, but at this point there remains little indication of what that undercard will be. Pro Wrestling Insider is reporting that a match between Shawn Michaels and Kurt Angle, as well as between Randy Orton and the Undertaker is a lock. The brunt of the former feud has really just begun and Orton/Undertaker has only been hinted at.
This close to WrestleMania, the lack of preparation may lead to one of the worst-received cards in years and the next several weeks of television are going to have be exceptional to sell the number of tickets that they want to sell. The main events, especially Batista/Triple H, which has a lot riding on it, is going to have to be more than just last Monday’s well executed angle, but also a follow up that must consist of good promos by both Triple H and Batista, who has yet to prove himself on the microphone. John Cena faces a harder challenge, first in getting over in a credible feud with John Layfield, and in fulfilling a role that desperately needs a good worker, which he is not, and a good gimmick, which he doesn’t have. Vince McMahon, who is seriously injured, will not have a hands-on influence on the booking for the next several months.
WrestleMania and PPV in general are hardly irrevocably destroyed. When its said and done, WWE’s ultimate profitably with things like weekly TV, this year’s Royal Rumble (which, when finalized, will be a good buyrate), and probably even a badly planned WrestleMania this year should be evidence enough that the fans are willing to stick around and buy the product as it goes through the motions. Moreover, WWE has both the talent and wherewithal to create a credible, enjoyable, and extremely profitable company, but in the future, for example at the planned lottery in April, it’s going to take some planning this time.
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